How to prioritise your assumptions

In my recent post, I mentioned that you should prioritise your assumptions as you go through each phase of product discovery. However, I didn’t actually explain how to do this.  

There are several approaches, but I prefer the two-by-two matrix that plots critical vs non-critical and known vs unknown. You can see an example of this in the attached figure. 

The first step is to list all your assumptions. Then you create a two-by-two matrix with critical vs non-critical on the y-axis and known vs unknown on the x-axis. Next, you plot all your assumptions horizontally along the x-axis, based on where you and your team think they are on the known vs. unknown scale. If you have an assumption that has been proven, then it will go on the far left. If you have an assumption with very little evidence, then it will go to the far right.  

The final step is to move the assumptions vertically along the y-axis based on whether they are critical or non-critical. For those assumptions critical to the product’s success, move them up. For assumptions that will have little impact on the successful outcome of the project, move them down.  

Once you have mapped all your assumptions in this way, you can now prioritise which assumptions to test first by looking at those that are in the top-right quadrant. Those assumptions are the ones that are the most critical and where you have the least knowledge.

Prioritising your assumptions