Avoid the Assumption Trap with the Product Phase Map

When assumptions are treated as facts, without empirical evidence to back them up, it is called the Assumption Trap. This is a major reason why innovative products often fail. However, making assumptions is necessary when building a new product. You will make assumptions about what the product will look like, how it will be used, who will use it, and the pricing strategy. Identifying and testing these assumptions is crucial for success.

To help with this process, I have designed the Product Phase Map. This tool will help you identify all the assumptions you are making about your product, prioritize the riskiest ones, and then test them. The first step is to identify assumptions about the problem you are trying to solve, your target market, and your competition. You will also explore how you plan to solve the problem, how long it will take to build, and at what cost. Finally, you will consider how you plan to sell your product, at what price, and your expected profitability.

The next step is to prioritize these assumptions, starting with the ones that are foundational to the success of the product. This includes the problem you are trying to solve, and for whom. If the problem doesn't exist, then no solution will work, no matter how much time and money you put into it. You will then move on to the Solution, Build, and Go to Market phases.

After filling in the Product Phase Map with your initial assumptions, the next step is to test them. Start with the problem you are trying to solve, for whom, and the existing competitive alternatives. Once you have successfully proven the assumptions in the Problem phase, move on to the Solution phase. Can you prove that your solution is a good fit for the problem, it is feasible for the business, are your customers able to use it and are you able to build it?

If any of your tests fail, you have three options: change the assumption, go back to a previous assumption and change that, or decide to change or stop the project altogether. By going through this process, you can ensure that your product is built on a strong foundation of proven assumptions, which is key to taking an innovative product to scale while avoiding the Assumption Trap.